Reading the Cards

You can see 26 cards: your hand and dummy. The other 26 are hidden. But they’re not completely hidden. The auction told you something. The opening lead told you something. Every card played gives you information.

Good declarers don’t guess. They read the cards, piece together the distribution, locate the key honors, and make the percentage play. Sometimes they know exactly where every card is. More often, they narrow it down enough to make the right decision.

This is card reading. It’s not magic; it’s logic, counting, and paying attention.

Start with the Auction

Before dummy comes down, replay the auction in your mind. What did it tell you?

Example 1:
Auction:
West passes
North (your partner) opens 1♥
East passes
You respond 2NT (forcing)
West passes
North bids 3♠
You bid 4♥

What you know:

West passed as dealer, so West doesn’t have an opening hand (unlikely to have 13+ HCP)
East passed over 1♥, so East doesn’t have an overcall (unlikely to have a good five-card suit)
Partner has five hearts and four spades
High cards are probably split between East and partner, with West having less

This already helps. If you need to finesse for a queen, it’s more likely to be with East than West (because West passed as dealer).

Example 2:
Auction:
West opens 1♠
Partner passes
East bids 2♠ (limit raise, 10-11 points)
You balance with 3♥
Partner raises to 4♥

What you know:

West has 12+ HCP and five spades
East has 10-11 HCP and three spades
That’s 22-23 HCP in their hands, leaving 17-18 for you and partner
They have at least eight spades between them
Partner has heart support but couldn’t act over 1♠ (so not a strong hand)

If you’re missing the ♦K, it’s probably with West (who opened). If you need to place the ♣A, it could be with either player.

The Opening Lead

The opening lead is a billboard. It tells you about that suit and often about the leader’s hand.

They lead the king:

Usually from K Q (might be K Q J, K Q 10)
Leader has at least two honors in the suit
Watch partner’s signal to see if partner has the jack or other honor

They lead fourth-best:

Count how many cards higher than the lead card you can see
Use the Rule of 11: Subtract the lead from 11, and that’s how many cards higher than the lead are in the other three hands
Example: They lead the 6. 11 - 6 = 5. You can see five cards higher than the 6 in your hand, dummy, and third seat’s play. The leader has the rest.

They lead a low card in partner’s suit:

Might be top of nothing, might be an honor
Watch third seat’s play to figure it out

They lead a trump:

Usually means they don’t have a good alternative
They might be trying to cut down ruffs in dummy
Look for shortness in dummy in a side suit—that’s probably why they led trump

The Rule of 11 (Actually Useful)

This one actually works. Subtract the card led (if it’s fourth-best) from 11. That tells you how many cards higher than the lead are in your hand, dummy, and third seat combined.

Example:
They lead the ♠5 (fourth-best) against your 3NT contract.

11 - 5 = 6.

You look at your hand and dummy. You see ♠A K 8 in your hand and ♠6 3 in dummy. That’s three cards higher than the 5 (ace, king, 8).

Third seat (East) plays the 9.

That’s four cards higher than the 5 (A, K, 8, 9). The rule says there are six, so there must be two more: the Q and J. But East just played the 9, so East can’t have both. West must have Q J 5 x.

Now you know West has the queen and jack. That helps with your hold-up play.

Counting Distribution

This is the big one. Count each opponent’s distribution in all four suits. Once you know three suits, the fourth is automatic.

Example:

Contract: 4♥

West leads ♠K. You play low from dummy, East plays ♠2, you duck. West continues ♠Q, East plays ♠4, you win the ace.

You start drawing trumps. West follows to two rounds and shows out on the third. West started with two hearts.

You cash three rounds of diamonds. West follows to all three. West started with three diamonds.

Count West’s hand so far:

Spades: At least two (played K Q)
Hearts: Two (followed twice, showed out)
Diamonds: Three (followed three times)
Clubs: Unknown

That’s 7+ cards accounted for. West has 13 cards total, so West has 6 or fewer clubs.

You cash the ♣A. West follows. You cash the ♣K. West shows out.

Now you know:

West: 2 spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, 1 club (that’s 8 cards… wait, West needs 13)

Let me recalculate. If West played two spades (K Q), West has at least two, maybe more. Let’s say West has exactly two (because East played 2 and 4, suggesting length elsewhere).

West: 2 spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds = 7 cards so far, leaving 6 clubs.

But West showed out on the second club. So West has 1 club.

That means West has: 5 spades (not 2!), 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, 1 club? Let me recount.

Actually, if West led K Q and you won the ace third round, West has shown at least two spades (K Q). If East has been following with low spades, you need to count more carefully.

This is getting confusing in writing. The point: Count each suit as it’s played. Once you know three suits, the fourth is determined.

Simpler example:

You play a hand and observe:

West has 5 spades (they showed out first)
West has 2 hearts (followed twice, then showed out)
West has 3 diamonds (followed three times, then showed out)
West has ? clubs

5 + 2 + 3 = 10. West has 13 cards total. So West has 3 clubs.

Now when you need to finesse for the ♣Q, you know West has three clubs and East has four. The queen is slightly more likely to be with East (the longer holding).

Vacant Spaces

This is a refinement of counting. If one opponent has more unknown cards, they’re more likely to hold any particular card.

Example:
You’ve counted the hands:

West: 2-5-4-2 (2 spades, 5 hearts, 4 diamonds, 2 clubs)
East: 4-1-2-6 (4 spades, 1 heart, 2 diamonds, 6 clubs)

You’re missing the ♦Q.

West has 4 diamonds, East has 2 diamonds. The queen is twice as likely to be with West simply because West has more diamonds.

But now consider vacant spaces:

West has 2 spades (known), 5 hearts (known), 4 diamonds (? includes the Q), 2 clubs (known). That’s 13 cards total.
East has 4 spades (known), 1 heart (known), 2 diamonds (? includes the Q), 6 clubs (known). That’s 13 cards total.

Both have 13 cards. But West has shown more high cards. If West opened the bidding, West has 12+ HCP. If East passed, East has fewer HCP.

The ♦Q is 3 HCP. Where is it more likely? With the opener (West) who has already shown 10-12 HCP, or with the passed hand (East)?

It’s more likely with West based on the auction, but more likely with East based on length. You have to weigh both factors.

Inferences from Defenders’ Plays

Every card they play tells you something.

They lead a suit and continue it:

They probably have good cards in that suit
Watch their spot cards—high cards encourage, low cards discourage

They shift to a new suit:

They’ve given up on the first suit
They think the new suit is better for defense
The card they lead tells you about their holding (K from K Q, low from weakness, etc.)

They duck an ace:

They might be holding up to cut communications
They might be waiting for partner to gain the lead
They might have a doubleton and are saving the ace for the third round

They discard:

High cards say “I have something here, partner”
Low cards say “I have nothing, shift to something else”
Pitching from a suit usually means weakness there

They play an honor:

From a sequence (K from K Q J, J from J 10 9)
If they play an honor on your small card, they might have a touching honor or they might be desperate

The Principle of Restricted Choice

This one sounds complicated but isn’t. If a defender plays an honor and might have had a choice of equal honors, it’s more likely they had no choice.

Example:
You’re missing Q J 4 of a suit. You lead the king and East plays the jack.

Did East play from Q J (had a choice) or from a singleton/doubleton jack (no choice)?

Mathematically, it’s twice as likely East had a singleton or doubleton jack. Because if East had both Q and J, East could have played either one. The fact that East played the jack suggests East didn’t have the queen (which would have been an equally valid play).

Practical use:
Cash the ace next. If the queen drops, great. If it doesn’t, the queen is probably with West, and you should finesse West for it (if you can).

This comes up with missing K Q, Q J, J 10, etc. If one defender shows one honor, they probably don’t have the other equal honor.

Counting High Card Points

You know your HCP and dummy’s HCP. You know partner’s range from the auction. That tells you how much is left for the opponents.

Example:
You have 12 HCP, dummy has 13 HCP. Partner opened 1NT (15-17), so partner has 15-17.

Total: 40 HCP in the deck.
You and partner: 27-29 HCP.
Opponents: 11-13 HCP.

If West overcalled, West probably has 8-10 of those HCP. That means East has 1-5 HCP.

Now you need to finesse for a queen (3 HCP). It’s with West, not East.

This isn’t foolproof, but it narrows the odds.

Putting It All Together

Here’s a full hand:

Contract: 3NT
Opening lead: ♠4 (fourth-best)

Dummy:
♠ K 7 2
♥ A 8 3
♦ K Q 10 5
♣ 9 6 2

Declarer (you):
♠ A 6 3
♥ K Q 7
♦ A 7 3
♣ A K 8 4

Auction:
West passes, North opens 1♦, East passes, you bid 3NT, everyone passes.

What you know from the auction:

West passed as dealer (no opening hand, <12 HCP)
East passed over 1♦ (no overcall)
Most high cards are with you and partner

The opening lead: ♠4

Rule of 11: 11 - 4 = 7 cards higher than the 4 in the other three hands.

Dummy has K 7 2. You have A 6 3. That’s four cards higher (K, A, 7, 6). East plays the 5. That’s five. So there are two more: the Q and J (and maybe 10, 9, 8 depending on what’s higher than the 4).

Wait, let’s recount. Cards higher than the 4: K, A, Q, J, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5.

In dummy: K, 7. In your hand: A, 6. East played: 5. That’s five cards.

Rule of 11 says there are 7 cards higher than the 4 outside West’s hand. You’ve seen five (K, A, 7, 6, 5). That means two more are with East or in dummy… wait, dummy and your hand and East’s play should total 7. K, 7 (dummy), A, 6 (you), 5 (East) = 5 cards higher than the 4.

That means West has 11 - 7 = 4 cards that are 4 or lower in spades.

Hmm, the Rule of 11 says: “Subtract the lead from 11 to get the number of cards HIGHER than the lead in the other three hands (not including the leader).”

So: 11 - 4 = 7. There are 7 cards higher than the 4 split between dummy, declarer, and East.

Dummy: K (higher), 7 (higher), 2 (not higher) = 2
Declarer: A (higher), 6 (higher), 3 (not higher) = 2
East plays: 5 (higher) = 1

Total: 2 + 2 + 1 = 5.

But the rule says there should be 7. So there are 2 more cards higher than the 4 that East didn’t play yet: probably Q, J, 10, 9, 8 (some combination of 2 of these).

If East has Q J, East would have played an honor, not the 5. So East probably has something like Q 8 5 or J 9 5 or 10 8 5, and West has the J or Q or both.

Actually, if East had Q J 8 5, East would play an honor (queen). East played the 5, so East probably has one honor at most.

This is getting into the weeds. The point: Use the Rule of 11 to figure out who has what.

Your plan:
You have eight top tricks (3 spades, 3 hearts, 3 diamonds, 1 club). You need one more. Clubs could provide it if the ♣Q is doubleton or if you can establish a fourth club.

But if you lose the lead, West will run spades (you think West has Q J 10 x x or similar).

Decision: Hold up the ♠A for two rounds to exhaust East of spades (if possible). Then knock out the ♣Q. If East has it, you’re safe (East has no spades to return). If West has it, you might go down, but that was always a risk.

This plan comes from reading the auction (West has fewer HCP), reading the lead (Rule of 11 tells you about spade distribution), and counting tricks.

Common Mistakes

Not thinking about the auction: The bidding tells you so much. Use it.

Not counting: You can’t read the cards if you don’t count them. Count distribution, count HCP, count tricks.

Playing too fast: Card reading requires attention. Slow down at trick one and plan.

Ignoring spot cards: High-low shows even numbers, low-high shows odd numbers (in the right contexts). Watch them.

Not using inferences: When someone doesn’t bid, doesn’t lead a suit, doesn’t play a card, that’s information too.

The Practice

Get in the habit:

Replay the auction before dummy comes down
Use the Rule of 11 on the opening lead
Count each opponent’s distribution as the hand progresses
Track where the high cards are
Think about why they played that card

You won’t get it right every time. Even experts guess sometimes. But the more you practice, the better your guesses become, and eventually they’re not guesses—they’re informed decisions.

The Bottom Line

Card reading isn’t about being psychic. It’s about:

Using the auction
Counting distribution
Counting high cards
Drawing inferences from plays
Applying logic

Do this consistently and you’ll make the right play far more often than if you just guess.

The cards are talking to you. You just have to listen.